2026 Outlook for C-Store M&A

After being recognized as an 'essential industry', the petroleum fueling and convenience store industry finds itself at a unique transition point in world history. Technological breakthroughs are driving extraordinarily rapid changes in business and in the ways consumers live and behave. The pace is both fascinating and, at times, overwhelming.

The accelerated advance of artificial intelligence is leading this transformation. Medical breakthroughs, workplace robotics, and other innovations are being developed more efficiently and much more quickly through data collection and processing centers. However, these advances require enormous amounts of energy, along with the transmission grid and storage infrastructure necessary to support it. Without careful planning, this transition creates risks in terms of disrupting electricity supply, business continuity, internet access, data security and the net impact on carbon emissions and climate change.

For AI adoption to quickly and cost-effectively succeed, it will require compromises and changes in regulation. AI introduces advanced military applications through robotics and increasingly powerful weaponry, raising global risks that must be managed with international cooperation. That cooperation is difficult to obtain when economic competition and “economic warfare” are both at risk. The choice of technologies and suppliers may ultimately determine the success or failure of individual companies — and even countries.

The retail industry is already experiencing meaningful impact from these trends, examples of which are ongoing product and sector optimization, site selection, operating models, warehouse automation, and delivery robotics. Sooner rather than later, our industry will become accustomed to working alongside robots in food preparation, stocking and destocking, pricing, and other functions.

We will also face the gradual introduction of robotaxis and autonomous vehicles. Fortunately, these technologies are being developed cautiously, allowing time for improvements in cost, safety, and business planning. Their adoption will be driven more by market economics than by government help programs. Meanwhile, stable oil prices from AI-like technology help keep pump prices and inflation low, creating room for healthy retail fuel margins to help fund cap ex and growth through NTIs and M&A.

Through all of these changes, CONVENIENCE THRIVES, and our industry continues its role as ‘essential’ by much of the public. Government policy has been supportive of the small-business foundations of the industry, while larger operators are likely to continue consolidation efforts to capture scale, pricing power, technological advantage, and growth — particularly in the fastest-growing segment of the business: foodservice.

Strong foodservice growth also benefits complementary c-store categories and fuel volumes, offering advantages that most restaurants and QSRs lack. Over time, continued product and recipe development — including snacks and beverages — are likely to trend healthier, helping offset demand shifts tied to evolving consumer health concerns and the exploding demand for weight loss drugs.

Absent unforeseen disruptions such as shortages of key materials — including silver, copper, rare earth metals, or skilled technology workers — AI has the potential to drive real economic growth of 4–5% for leading countries like the United States. Over time, real economic growth equals the sum of the percentage growth of the workforce plus the percentage gain or loss from productivity. While U.S. workforce growth is likely to remain flat without increased immigration or higher birth rates, productivity gains alone could exceed 5%.

Stable labor markets and controlled inflation would help support the U.S. Dollar and should be reflected in long-term Treasury rates remaining below 5% for the critical ten-year bond. Rates consistently above that level would suggest that economic growth is insufficient to offset the nation’s large deficits, including other private capital demands. The Federal Reserve has maintained a slightly conservative stance over the past two years through quantitative tightening, which has recently concluded. Overall, with sound leadership and effective decision-making, the stage appears set for continued AI-driven progress.

Under these conditions, c-store profitability can thrive for companies with strong management teams, well-aligned brands, and programs that match their organizational capabilities and strategic long-term goals. Retailers must be prepared to adapt carefully, yet quickly, as circumstances evolve. The current M&A environment and industry profitability should benefit operators who choose to streamline their portfolio to the strongest assets or pursue a complete exit. Sellers’ valuation multiples, based on store-level EBITDA, which have recently ranged from 7.0x to 9.5x may prove stronger for the most solid and scarce chains, which have become more scarce than ever.

Multi-generational operators, in particular, must objectively assess the capabilities and aspirations of future leadership in the context of the AI revolution. This challenge is heightened in a world where more and more women are breaking traditional glass ceilings and taking on complex leadership roles, often with strong preparation for managing intellectual property. For owner-sellers with capable management teams that want to harvest todays significant M&A values for their current ownership, buyers are available that will want those teams and offer significant financial incentives going forward, perhaps even including partial ownership. Yes, in some cases, even retaining regional store names that have local value.

Buyers today are also more willing than ever to cross traditional regional boundaries, supported by advances in long-distance accounting, auditing, and oversight technology. Legal structures such as joint ventures, partnerships, partial ownership arrangements, leasing models, etc., remain legally and financially complex. As a result, engaging an experienced investment advisor such as NRC is more important than ever to fully understand both the benefits and potential pitfalls of these approaches.

Please contact me or your NRC representative to discuss how NRC can help your company prepare for and optimize the opportunities ahead that may best fit your company’s objectives.

Best wishes for a healthy, happy and prosperous 2026.