Observations from the Executive Suite

Kevin Warsh gave an important speech last Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. He properly pointed out that Federal Reserve policy has not been especially tight, basically leaving the marketplace to reflect higher interest rates in most international markets and primarily resulting from sizable existing and still increasing structural debts and now increased AI capital spending. Inflation is very persistent as shown in increased diesel and jet fuel costs (airfares w

M&A Demand. Remains strong especially for more scarce quality assets with supply contract flexibility. Flexible contracts open doors for alternate brands, changes in classes of trade, and tax savings for both parties. M&A Supply. Top of the industry buyers are still plentiful, but cautious at high multiples. Money plentiful. Banks, REITs for sale-leasebacks, and private equity/private debt, but getting most expensive in over eight years. Inflation too high. Two percent Feder

First, an update on wars. There is/was another cease fire at Hormuz to allow ongoing negotiations, as some oil gets through. Recent U.S. bombing has closed down Iran's main water export terminal at Kharg Island. In the meantime, threats are now impacting Red Sea oil movements, while Russian/Ukraine fighting continues with ever improving Ukraine weaponry aimed at Russian refineries causing serious domestic fuel shortages. Normally Russia has been a sizable exporter of diesel f